January 25, 2026, 4:55 am | Read time: 5 minutes
More and more people are overweight or obese, with long-term consequences for their health. What is particularly alarming is that children and young people are also increasingly affected. A recent analysis shows that the number of overweight and obese young people worldwide has doubled since 1990 and paints a gloomy forecast for the next 25 years.
Overweight and obesity in children and adolescents not only have long-term health consequences, but also have a direct impact on their physical and mental health. Cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, and hormonal disorders are becoming increasingly common at a young age. The causes are complex: changes in lifestyle, urbanization, and the increasing availability of high-calorie foods contribute significantly to this development. A recent study published in the journal “The Lancet” has now examined the global development of overweight and obesity between 1990 and 2021 and made predictions up to 2050 based on this1 This reveals worrying trends that demonstrate the urgent need to find strategies to curb the overweight and obesity epidemic worldwide.
Overview
Study Examines the Development of Overweight in Children
The aim of the study was to record the global, regional, and national development of overweight and obesity in children (five to 14 years) and adolescents (15 to 24 years) in the period from 1990 to 2021 and to make predictions up to 2050. To do this, the researchers analyzed 1321 data sets from 180 countries and used an advanced statistical model to produce accurate estimates and forecasts. A central concern was not only to record the pure increase in prevalence, but also to investigate in which regions and population groups obesity is becoming increasingly dominant in relation to overweight.
Study Design and Methods
The study used data and findings from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD 2021) and combined measurements and self-reported data from national health surveys, epidemiological studies, and government reports. To model the trends in overweight and obesity, spatiotemporal Gaussian process regressions were used to analyse temporal and spatial developments2 For the forecasts up to 2050, a generalized ensemble model was used, which combined twelve different statistical methods to enable the most accurate predictions possible.
Overweight and obesity were defined according to the internationally recognized BMI classifications:
- Five to 17 years: International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) cut-off values, which differ minimally from the WHO values and go into more detail about children3
- 18 to 24 years: WHO criteria (BMI ≥25 for overweight, BMI ≥30 for obesity)
Alarming Overweight and Obesity Figures
Between 1990 and 2021, the number of overweight and obese children and adolescents worldwide doubled. Particularly alarming: the number of people affected by obesity tripled during this period.
In 2021, 93.1 million children between the ages of five and 14 were obese. In the youth and adolescent age group (15 to 24 years), 80.6 million people were obese.
North Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania proved to be real hotspots in the analysis. They have the highest rates. In Australia, Canada, and several Arab countries, the number of young people with obesity already exceeds that of those who are overweight.
Forecasts for 2050
Total number of people affected:
According to the forecast, one-third of children and adolescents worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050. 356 million children aged between five and 14 and 390 million young people aged between 15 and 24 will suffer from overweight or obesity. This means that a total of 746 million children and young people will be overweight in 2050, 360 million of whom will be obese.
Age group particularly affected:
Increasingly younger people will be affected by obesity. On average, children between the ages of five and 14 will have a higher risk of obesity than adolescents between the ages of 15 and 24 (although the trend may vary from country to country)
Global peaks
In parts of North Africa and the Middle East, over 30 percent of the young population will be obese by 2050.
Fastest increase
South and Southeast Asia are also already experiencing very high growth rates and are forecast to record the strongest growth rates in obesity.
Findings: Current Measures Are Not Enough
The results of the study show that current measures to combat overweight and obesity are not enough. Particularly dramatic: obesity is increasingly becoming the norm in some regions (e.g., North Africa, Latin America). There, the number of people who are merely overweight is stagnating or even falling—but only because those affected move directly into the obesity category. However, this picture does not (yet) apply to all countries included in the analysis. In other regions of the world, the rate of overweight children and adolescents is still rising.
Enormous Health Consequences
Overweight and obesity, in particular, can lead to short-term and—if left untreated—serious long-term consequences.
Possible health consequences of obesity include metabolic diseases, hormonal disorders, and psychological stress. There is also an increased risk of diabetes, liver disease, reproductive disorders, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and reduced life expectancy.
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Classification of the Study and Possible Limitations
The study is based on extensive and high-quality data sources, but there are some limitations:
Data quality
In some countries, only self-reports are available, which may underestimate the actual values.
BMI as a benchmark:
BMI does not provide information on body composition, so differences between muscle and fat mass are not captured.
Forecast uncertainties
The calculations are based on current trends—political or economic developments could influence future figures.
Despite these limitations, the study provides valuable insights and shows where there is an urgent need for action.
Conclusion
The global obesity epidemic among children and adolescents is increasing unchecked and requires immediate countermeasures. Especially in regions with high prevalence, targeted interventions are needed. According to the study, this could include the following points:
- Prevention through policy measures: e.g., tax increases on unhealthy foods, subsidies for healthy eating.
- School and community-based programs: Promoting physical activity and nutrition education.
- Clinical interventions: Early therapy for already obese children to minimize long-term damage.