March 6, 2026, 12:01 pm | Read time: 6 minutes
For decades, Europe has seen an increase in life expectancy. However, this trend has slowed down since 2011—and in some countries it is even declining. A new study shows that not only the coronavirus pandemic, but also changing health risks and political measures play a decisive role. And we ourselves are not entirely innocent either. FITBOOK editor Sophie Brünke presents the results of the study.
The “Global Burden of Disease 2021” study was published a few years ago. This is the most comprehensive long-term study to date on the spread of diseases in 160 countries and regions. An analysis based on this study was recently published, which is based on data on life expectancy in Europe between 1990 and 2021. The results show: While life expectancy increased every year between 1990 and 2011, a turning point was reached from 2019 onwards. And the coronavirus pandemic is not the only reason for this. Find out here what reasons the scientists identified and which countries in Europe bucked the trend by increasing life expectancy.
Overview of the study
What the Scientists Wanted to Find Out
The aim of the study was to analyze the causes of the changes in life expectancy in Europe. Since 2011, the previously steady increase in life expectancy had already slowed down—a phenomenon that could not be explained solely by the coronavirus pandemic that began in 2020. The scientists wanted to identify the factors responsible and find out why some countries were better able to maintain the increase in life expectancy than others.1
The scientists used data from 16 countries for the analysis: from the European Economic Area, the data came from Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden. Data from England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales were added from the United Kingdom.
The Researchers Analyzed Three Time Periods
Changes in life expectancy were identified within three periods:
- 1990 to 2011: steady increase in life expectancy (annual increase of 0.23 years on average)
- 2011 to 2019: slower growth (average annual increase of 0.15 years)
- 2019 to 2021: decline in life expectancy (annual decrease by an average of 0.18 years)
The coronavirus pandemic was primarily responsible for the decline in life expectancy, but not exclusively.
In addition to average life expectancy, the study also looked at specific causes of death and risk factors such as high blood pressure, smoking, an unhealthy diet, high cholesterol levels, and obesity.
How Did the Scientists Determine Life Expectancy?
Using health data from the 16 countries mentioned above, the scientists determined life expectancy based on age- and gender-specific mortality rates. A cause-and-effect analysis was used to determine which diseases and risk factors had the greatest impact on life expectancy. It was also investigated whether the population was more or less exposed to certain risk factors over time.
In order to compare life expectancy in different countries, the researchers used a standardized method. This enabled them to calculate exactly what influence individual causes of death have on the overall change in life expectancy. They differentiated between deaths from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, respiratory infections (including coronavirus), and others.
Two Main Factors Besides Corona Discovered
The analysis of the data revealed that the main reason for the slower increase in life expectancy between 2011 and 2019 was a smaller decline in deaths from cardiovascular disease and, in some countries, cancer. And these could be attributed to a second, perhaps unwelcome factor: an unhealthy lifestyle.
According to the researchers, the deaths in question are due to the following signs of an unhealthy lifestyle
- Smoking
- Alcohol consumption
- Unhealthy diet
- High cholesterol levels
- Obesity
- High blood pressure
- Low physical activity
According to the authors of the study, the majority of these risks either increased or did not improve after 2011 in almost all the countries surveyed. For example, although tobacco consumption fell in many countries, the number of people with obesity and poor eating habits increased.
Medical Progress Can No Longer Compensate for Unhealthy Lifestyles
While advances in medicine were still able to significantly reduce deaths from cardiovascular diseases and cancer until 2011, after 2011, the consequences of an unhealthy lifestyle could apparently no longer be offset, even by improved medication. Lead author Nicholas Steel says in a press release: “Better cholesterol and blood pressure treatments have not been enough to offset the damage caused by obesity and poor diet.”2
Some Countries Are Successfully Bucking the Trend
Steel explains: “The life expectancy of older people is still increasing in many countries, which shows that we have not yet reached the natural upper limit of life expectancy.” This is because countries such as Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Belgium have been able to increase their life expectancy even after 2011, which is presumably due to better national health policies and preventative measures.
The fact that the data shows an opposite trend on average could be due to the fact that many younger people died as a result of their unhealthy lifestyles in the near past. However, Steel also sees a potential lever here: “Life expectancy primarily reflects mortality at a younger age, where we have a lot of scope to reduce harmful risks and prevent early deaths.” In other words: a healthy lifestyle should also be led at a young age.
Significance of the Results
The findings are particularly relevant for the future of European health policy. Preventive measures against cardiovascular diseases and cancer play a key role, for example, through a healthier diet, promotion of physical activity, and better medical care. It is particularly important to motivate young people to adopt a healthier lifestyle, as many preventable deaths occur at a younger age.
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Classification of the Study and Possible Limitations
The study offers a comprehensive analysis of life expectancy in Europe and provides valuable insights into the underlying causes of the changes. A strength of the study is the use of the “Global Burden of Disease” data, which enables an international comparison.
However, as with any study, there are some limitations, which we will now take a look at:
- Data quality: differences in the recording of causes of death and risk factors between countries can influence the results
- Long-term effects: The long-term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic on life expectancy cannot yet be fully predicted
- Indirect influences: Factors such as economic inequality, education, and environmental conditions play a role, but were not examined in detail here
Conclusion
Life expectancy in Europe has been growing more slowly since 2011, and in some countries it has even fallen. The main causes are cardiovascular diseases and cancer, coupled with an unhealthy lifestyle. Countries with strong health policies, on the other hand, have been better able to maintain their progress in life expectancy.
The results show that not only individual decisions, but also government measures play a central role in the health of the population. Investments in prevention, a healthier diet, and an active lifestyle could increase life expectancy again in many countries.
The German original of this article was published in February 2025.