Skip to content
logo The magazine for fitness, health and nutrition
Cancer Endurance training Longevity Muscle building and strength training All topics
Analysis of Studies

How Poor Fitness Truly Affects Mortality Risk

Physical fitness might be more crucial for lifespan than previously thought. The comparison to smoking also draws attention.
Physical fitness might be more crucial for lifespan than previously thought. An expert is calling for greater attention to this health aspect. Photo: Getty Images
Share article

June 22, 2026, 6:16 pm | Read time: 8 minutes

If you want to stay fit, independent, and mentally sharp for as long as possible, you might not want to aim for the minimum. That’s the argument made by a scientist from the University of Cambridge in a recent article. Based on numerous studies, he calls for new recommendations for exercise and protein intake. One particular number related to physical fitness might surprise many readers.

Why the Cambridge Researcher Questions Official Recommendations

Chris Macdonald from the University of Cambridge believes the current recommendations for exercise and protein intake are set too low. His main criticism: Most guidelines were developed to prevent deficiencies or lack of exercise. However, they are not designed to help people stay healthy, capable, and independent for as long as possible.1

The core of his argument is the so-called “healthy lifespan”—the period in life when people remain physically fit, mentally capable, and independent. To support his claims, Macdonald evaluated numerous studies on exercise, muscle strength, endurance, protein intake, and healthy aging. From his analysis, he concludes that today’s recommendations primarily define minimum requirements and may not align with what current research suggests for healthy aging.

Poor Fitness Even Worse Than Smoking?

Perhaps the most striking statement in the article concerns the importance of physical fitness. In one of the cited studies, people with very poor cardiovascular endurance had about a 400 percent higher risk of death compared to those with high fitness. For comparison, Macdonald refers to another analysis where smoking was associated with about a 50 percent higher risk of death. Thus, a low fitness level might be a greater risk factor for mortality than smoking.

Important: These figures come from different studies with different methods and were not directly compared. Therefore, the article does not provide conclusive proof that poor fitness is generally more dangerous than smoking.

However, the comparison clearly illustrates the significant differences between very fit and very unfit individuals in the evaluated studies. Muscle strength also played an important role: People with low muscle strength had about a 200 percent higher risk of death compared to those with high muscle strength.

The data suggest that there can be significant differences in key health risks between very fit and unfit individuals.

Exercise Can Do Much More Than Just Burn Calories

A central point of the article is that exercise is often reduced to weight loss. However, the evaluated studies suggest that physical activity can have numerous other benefits. These include improvements in immune defense, or the body’s ability to fend off pathogens. Additionally, exercise is associated with fewer instances of depression and anxiety.

Further studies point to potential benefits for memory, concentration, and other mental abilities. Sleep quality, fatigue, and psychological well-being could also benefit from regular exercise.

This positions exercise in a much broader role: not just as a means of losing weight, but as an important component of physical and mental health.

Why the Author Recommends More Than Just Walking

Macdonald argues that the health benefits increase with more activity. Even more than about 15 minutes of exercise daily was associated with a lower risk of death in the cited studies. At the same time, the data suggested that the benefits continued to increase with longer durations of exercise.

The author particularly praises the combination of endurance and strength training. According to one of the cited studies, this combination was associated with about a 40 percent lower mortality rate.

This includes activities such as running, cycling, or swimming combined with regular strength training. This mix is repeatedly highlighted in the article as particularly effective.

Why Intense Training Is So Interesting According to the Data

A focus of the article is on training intensity. Macdonald refers to an analysis of more than 70,000 adults from the UK Biobank. The results suggest that intense physical activity per minute could be significantly more effective than moderate exercise.

Accordingly, intense training was about four times more effective in reducing overall mortality risk and about eight times more effective in reducing deaths from cardiovascular diseases.

Particularly surprising: According to this analysis, more than an hour of light exercise might be needed to achieve a similar effect on cancer mortality risk as one minute of intense activity. The results suggest that not only the amount of exercise could be crucial, but also the intensity.

Can Exercise Rejuvenate the Heart by Decades?

Macdonald also refers to a two-year study with previously inactive middle-aged adults. Through regular high-intensity training, the structure and function of the heart improved so significantly that the changes, according to the researchers, corresponded to about two decades of age-related changes.

The results suggest that regular training can still bring significant health benefits even after many years of physical inactivity.

At the same time, the author emphasizes that people who have not exercised for a long time should gradually increase the intensity and seek medical advice if necessary.

The Expert Also Considers Protein Recommendations Outdated

Macdonald sees a need for action not only in exercise. The current British recommendation for protein dates back to 1991 and is based, according to the author, on a predominantly sedentary lifestyle. The goal was to prevent protein deficiency. Muscle building, physical performance, or healthy aging were not the focus.

Simply put: Today’s recommendations are meant to ensure that people do not develop a protein deficiency. However, Macdonald considers them too low if the goal is a healthy and capable life.

As an example, the author mentions an adult weighing about 79 kilograms. For this person, he considers about 120 grams of protein per day a reasonable target. This would correspond to approximately 30 grams of protein per meal with four meals a day.

More Muscle Building, Less Fat: What Higher Protein Amounts Could Achieve

Several of the evaluated studies, according to Macdonald, support a higher protein intake. The evaluated studies show: More protein can make a noticeable difference in strength training. Even a moderate increase in daily protein intake was associated with significantly more muscle growth and measurable strength gains. Specifically, the researchers report about 30 percent more muscle growth and about 10 percent more strength.

Higher protein amounts could also offer advantages in fat loss. According to the cited studies, people with higher protein intake often lost more body fat with the same calorie intake and were able to maintain more muscle mass. Additionally, the author refers to studies indicating that endurance athletes often need significantly more protein than people with a predominantly sedentary lifestyle.

And protein is important not only for athletes, according to current research: Older people and pregnant women also benefit from paying particular attention to their protein intake. Vegans are another group that should give special attention to protein.

What the Researcher Now Demands from Governments

Macdonald formulates three specific demands:

  • First, governments should review existing exercise recommendations and focus more on optimal health rather than minimum requirements.
  • Second, official protein recommendations should be updated.
  • Third, he calls for significantly better communication. Recommendations should be formulated in a way that people can easily understand and practically implement them. As an example, he mentions protein targets per meal or digital calculators with individual recommendations.

Additionally, he advocates for a cultural shift. Strength training, intense exercise, and a protein-rich diet are often associated with competitive sports or bodybuilding. In reality, it’s about something else: staying strong, independent, and healthy for as long as possible.

More on the topic

Where the Article’s Limitations Lie

Despite the wealth of data, this is not a new clinical study. Macdonald did not examine any participants himself but evaluated and interpreted already published research.

The author himself points out that nutrition and lifestyle research often relies on self-reports and many factors can influence the results. Additionally, many of the figures mentioned come from different studies and therefore cannot be directly compared. The optimal protein amount for various health goals is also not yet conclusively determined. The author sees further research needed here.

No conflicts of interest were reported by the author. The publication costs were supported by the Lucy Cavendish College of the University of Cambridge.

The Most Important Points at a Glance

The main message of the article is not that everyone needs to eat more protein or train hard every day. Rather, the author questions whether many health recommendations set the bar too low. The evaluated studies suggest that strength, endurance, and adequate protein supply could be crucial for how fit, resilient, and independent people remain as they age. Instead of focusing only on minimum values, another question comes to the forefront: What does the body need to function well for as long as possible?

This article is a machine translation of the original German version of FITBOOK and has been reviewed for accuracy and quality by a native speaker. For feedback, please contact us at info@fitbook.de.

Sources

  1. Chris, Macdonald. (2026). Beyond the bare minimum: the case for revised physical activity guidelines and protein intake recommendations that maximise healthspan. Front. Nutr. ↩︎
You have successfully withdrawn your consent to the processing of personal data through tracking and advertising when using this website. You can now consent to data processing again or object to legitimate interests.