October 14, 2026, 3:38 pm | Read time: 6 minutes
Pandemics, nuclear wars, and artificial intelligence are considered major threats to humanity. But how dangerous are they compared to everyday health risks like unhealthy diets or lack of exercise? An international Lancet Commission examined 17 global threats and health risks, calculating how much their health impacts could be reduced by 2100 if global conditions improve.
Obesity and Lack of Exercise Have the Greatest Health Impacts
Obesity, unhealthy diets, and lack of exercise could burden global health more by 2100 than any other threats studied. This is shown by a comprehensive analysis published in the renowned journal The Lancet.1
Researchers estimate that the difference between a favorable and an unfavorable development of these risk factors amounts to about 23.1 billion healthy life years. This refers to the time people worldwide could lose due to diseases, health limitations, or premature death.
According to the analysis, low education levels and income inequality are also among the greatest long-term health threats. They could cause a greater preventable health burden than pandemics or climate change.
Commission co-chair Dr. Christopher J. L. Murray explains in a press release: “The estimates highlight how much health damage could be avoided in each area. Some already pose a significant burden on the health system today, while others, if realized, pose a real danger. It is crucial that all 17 threats are interconnected, so they must be addressed together, not in isolation.”2 Murray is also the head of the Department of Health Metrics at the University of Washington and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
How the Study Was Conducted
For the Lancet analysis, an international commission led by Dr. Christopher J. L. Murray and Dr. Natalia Kanem, along with 35 other experts from health, economics, security, governance, and technology, examined 17 global health threats. The goal was to make their potential impacts comparable by 2100 and to determine how much political and societal measures could influence them.
To do this, the researchers analyzed health data from 204 countries and territories and developed forecasts for the years 2025 to 2100. They calculated the difference between the best and worst outcomes.
To compare the various threats, the researchers used “DALYs” (Disability-Adjusted Life Years), which in German translates to “verlorene gesunde Lebensjahre” (lost healthy life years). This unit measures both the years lost due to premature death and the time people spend with health limitations. For example, if a person dies five years earlier than expected, that equates to five lost healthy life years. Years with health limitations are proportionally considered based on the severity of the impairment.
For unpredictable events like a nuclear war or the malicious use of artificial intelligence, the commission also used expert assessments.
Health Threats Are Not the Same Everywhere
In addition to obesity, unhealthy diets, and lack of exercise, societal factors also play a crucial role. According to the calculations, low education levels could be associated with 16.1 billion lost healthy life years, and income inequality with 13.8 billion. However, the health burden is distributed very differently worldwide: While chronic diseases and mental stress dominate in wealthier countries, educational deficits and social inequality are more prevalent in poorer regions like sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
In 154 of the 204 countries and territories studied, obesity, unhealthy diets, and lack of exercise could cause the greatest preventable health burden.
In sub-Saharan Africa, low education levels are the top concern. More than two-thirds of the globally preventable health burden associated with low education falls on this region. According to the models, this is partly because higher education could be linked to lower disease and mortality rates and changes in population development. In wealthier regions, mental health plays a comparatively significant role.
Also interesting: Is the next flu wave starting earlier than usual?
Extinction-Level Threats and Catastrophic Scenarios
Extraordinary disasters could also have significant consequences. The Lancet Commission explicitly classifies two threats as having the potential to wipe out humanity: the malicious use of artificial intelligence (such as for developing bioweapons) with 10.4 billion influenceable healthy life years, and a nuclear conflict and the resulting global nuclear famine with about 9.35 billion. However, these estimates are particularly uncertain, as they are based on subjective expert surveys and lack reliable historical comparison data.
Dr. Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, says the commission offers a radical paradigm shift in thinking about future threats to human survival. It is about moving from individual problems to a more complex threat landscape. “The dangers we face are diverse. Our solutions must reflect this reality.”
Naturally occurring pandemics account for 2.39 billion, and climate change for 1.89 billion healthy life years in the analysis. However, these lower values do not mean the threats are fundamentally less severe. The numbers merely describe the possible differences between favorable and unfavorable future scenarios.
Overview of the 17 Global Health Threats Studied
A Third of Children and Young People Will Be Overweight in 2050
This Is Why the Life Expectancy of People in Europe Is Stagnating
How to Interpret the Results
A strength of the analysis is that it compares very different health threats using the same method. The model also considers that people who do not die from a specific cause may later develop or die from other diseases. As a result, the estimated preventable health burden is on average about 50 percent lower.
However, the numbers should be taken with caution. No one knows exactly how the world will develop by 2100. Rare catastrophes are mathematically underrepresented, even though they could cause enormous damage in reality. For AI and nuclear war, estimates range from almost zero to many billions of lost life years. In the case of climate change, chain reactions like droughts or migrations are not yet fully captured.
Also interesting: Study identifies riskiest age for weight gain
Conclusion
The Lancet Commission shows that alongside disasters like wars and pandemics, obesity, unhealthy diets, lack of exercise, and social inequality could have significant health impacts by 2100. There is particularly great potential to avoid health damage through a healthier lifestyle. Nuclear wars and the dangerous use of AI also pose significant risks, although their extent is difficult to estimate.
The results do not predict what will actually happen. Instead, they show where political and societal measures could most significantly improve global health.
Commission co-chair Dr. Natalia Kanem, former executive director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), warns: “Recent global events show us how quickly stability can turn into crisis and how costly it is to react only after a disaster.” Governments and communities must act decisively today to protect health and create a fairer, more peaceful, and safer future for future generations.